The world’s biggest single day election has begun in Indonesia, with more than 200 million people eligible to vote across the archipelago in a race that will determine who will succeed popular outgoing President Joko Widodo.
Defence minister Prabowo Subianto, a former special commander under the Suharto dictatorship, has maintained a clear lead in pre-election surveys after rebranding his past fierce image and securing the tacit support of the outgoing president, whose policies he has promised to continue. Prabowo’s running mate is Widodo’s eldest son.
However, it’s not clear if Prabowo, a controversial figure, will secure more than 50% of votes on Wednesday, which is necessary to win in a first round. Trailing behind him are Anies Baswedan, former Jakarta governor and academic, and Ganjar Pranowo, former Central Java governor.
Voters are not only selecting their future president and vice president, but also executive and legislative representatives at all administrative levels across the country, a vast archipelago of 17,000 islands sprawled across three time zones.
The scale of the election is greater than any other one-day vote, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, and is a huge logistical challenge. Ballot boxes have been delivered to more than 820,000 polling stations across the country, by boat, helicopter, ox-drawn carts and on foot.
This year’s election will be shaped by young voters, who make up more than 50% of eligible voters, and who have been heavily targeted by candidates via social media campaigns that have ranged from TikTok livestream Q&A sessions, to concert ticket giveaways.
The election commission has said voting could be delayed in Demak, Central Java, and Paniai, Central Papua, due to flooding. Storms early on Wednesday in Jakarta also caused delays, with observers and organisers struggling to reaching polling stations in time.
At a voting centre in Sasak Panjang Village, Bogor, just south of Jakarta, about 20 voters queued under umbrellas as polls opened at 7.45am, slightly later than planned due to the bad weather. Ernando Hutapea, who was among those voting, said he believed many would be forced by the rains to wait until later to vote. “I came early because I want it to be done quickly. I believe this process is important for our nation’s future,” he said.
Indonesia, which escaped authoritarian rule just 26 years ago, typically has high turnouts on election day, which is a national holiday and is known in the country as Pesta Demokrasi or Democratic Party.
This year’s election has been marked by concerns that democratic processes have been undermined in the run up to the vote. Widodo, also known as Jokowi, has reached the end of his term limit after a decade in power and has been accused of manoeuvring to boost the campaign of Prabowo as part of efforts to form a dynasty and protect his legacy.
Jokowi hasn’t explicitly endorsed any of the three candidates, but his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is running as a vice presidential candidate in tandem with the defence minister. This partnership was only possible after a court, headed by Jokowi’s brother in law, tweaked the eligibility criteria for candidates – a development that outraged many. Jokowi has appeared at Prabowo’s campaign events, and has been accused of leveraging state resources to boost Prabowo. His office has denied that he is seeking to interfere in the election.
Prabowo, a former son-in-law of Suharto, is strongly opposed by human rights activists, who point to allegations relating to his time in the military. A longtime commander in the Kopassus special forces, he was dishonourably discharged in 1998 after Kopassus soldiers kidnapped and tortured political opponents of Suharto, his then-father-in-law.
Of 22 activists kidnapped that year, 13 remain missing. Prabowo always denied wrongdoing and has never been charged in relation to the allegations. Several of his men were tried and convicted.
Prabowo is also accused of involvement in rights abuses in Papua and East Timor, including a 1983 massacre in which hundreds of people, most of them men, were killed in the village of Kraras in East Timor. He has denied the allegations.
Prabowo lost to Jokowi in elections in 2014 and 2019, but the president’s tacit support has given a big boost to his popularity, as have his efforts to present himself as a fun grandpa-like figure, who dance awkwardly at rallies. Such campaigning has endeared him to younger voters, whose memories of the Suharto era are less strong.
Analysts say voter turnout, especially among younger people, will be crucial to the election outcome, and will be particularly important to Prabowo’s campaign.
Trailing behind him in pre-election surveys is Anies, the former head of an Islamic university, who served as governor of Jakarta until last year.
Anies opposes Jokowi’s signature plan to move Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to Nusantara on the island of Borneo, about 2,000km (1,240 miles) away, which involves constructing government buildings and housing from scratch.
Ganjar is the governing party candidate, but does not have the support of Jokowi. He was a national legislator for the governing Indonesian Democratic party of Struggle for 10 years before being elected in 2013 for the first of two terms as Central Java governor.
While governor, he refused to allow Israel to participate in the Under-20 Fifa World Cup to be held in his province. Fifa subsequently dropped Indonesia as host of the games, triggering a backlash against Pranowo from football fans.
Israel and Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, do not have diplomatic ties.
