Russia-Ukraine war latest: Zelenskiy says 243 children killed in war; Merkel condemns ‘barbaric war of aggression’ – live | Ukraine

Larry Elliott

Our Larry Elliott writes for us that the perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe:

It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.

Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.

But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

Read Larry Elliott’s full opinion piece: Russia is winning the economic war – and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

Luke Harding

Russian forces are this morning shelling the village of Mykolaivka, close to the strategic city of Sloviansk in the eastern Donbas region.

Serhiy Leshchenko, a Ukrainian government adviser and volunteer, said artillery rounds were hitting the settlement “24/7”.

Leshchenko was delivering food, flak jackets and other supplies who are holding the line north of Sloviansk against a Russian advance.

Donetsk’s military governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said shelling was taking place today across “the whole line of contact” including in Sloviansk, Bakhmit and Avdiyivka, where 3,500 civilians remained.

Across the region 340,000 people had stayed in their houses from a pre-invasion total of 1.67m, he said.

Russian forces are currently occupying about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address to the Luxembourg parliament.

The front lines of battle stretch across more than 1,000km (620 miles), Zelenskiy said, adding:

We have to defend ourselves against almost the entire Russian army. All combat-ready Russian military formations are involved in this aggression.

He said 100 Ukrainians are dying on a daily basis in eastern Ukraine, and another 450-500 people are wounded.

The Kremlin has confirmed that Valentin Yumashev, the son-in-law of former Russian leader Boris Yeltsin, has quit his role as an adviser to Vladimir Putin.

Yumashev was an unpaid adviser with a limited influence on Putin’s decision-making, Reuters reports. But he did represent one of the last links inside the Putin administration to Yeltsin’s rule, a period of liberal reforms and Russia’s opening up towards the west.

Under Yeltsin, who was Russian president from 1991 to 1999, Yumashev served as a Kremlin adviser and later as Kremlin chief of staff. He is married to Yeltsin’s daughter, Tatyana. Despite a divergence in values between the two Russian leaders, Putin has kept ties to the former first family.

In March, another senior Yeltsin-era figure, Anatoly Chubais, left his role as a special envoy to the Kremlin.

Referring to Yumashev, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters today:

I can confirm that about a month ago he stopped being an advisor on a voluntary basis.

• The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has claimed 243 children have been killed so far in the war and 200,000 children have been forcefully taken to Russia, including children from orphanages, children taken with their parents and those separated from their families. Speaking in relation to children take to Russia, he said: “The purpose of this criminal policy is not just to steal people but to make those who are deported forget about Ukraine and unable to return.”
• In her first public speech since leaving office about six months ago, Angela Merkel has described Russia’s war on Ukraine as a “barbaric war of aggression” which amounted to a “far-reaching turning point”. She said whilst she was reluctant to give her views from the sidelines as the former German chancellor, she could not avoid talking about the most “glaring breach of international law” in the history of Europe since the end of the second world war.
• Russia has taken control of most of the key eastern Ukrainian city of Sieverodonetsk, the UK ministry of defence has said in its latest intelligence report. The report adds: “The main road into the Sieverodonetsk pocket likely remains under Ukrainian control but Russia continues to make steady local gains, enabled by a heavy concentration of artillery.”
• The chief spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence, Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov, has claimed that the number of foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine has halved since the the start of the war, due to Russian high-precision strikes and their own poor training. He also had a warning for those still fighting as mercenaries in Ukraine, saying “Let me remind you that in accordance with international humanitarian law, mercenaries are not combatants and the best that awaits them is criminal liability.️”
• The headquarters of the territorial defence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic claims to have 222 settlements are under their control. They claim overnight ten areas of Donetsk were shelled by Ukrainian forces, and that one person was killed and 19 more were injured.
• Foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said Ukraine is working with international partners to create a United Nations-backed mission to restore Black Sea shipping routes and export Ukrainian farm produce.
• Slovakia will deliver eight self-propelled Zuzana 2 howitzers to Ukraine under a commercial contract which a state-controlled producer signed, the Slovak Defence Ministry has said.
• Ukraine’s football victory over Scotland in their Fifa World Cup playoff semi-final last night gave the country, in the words of Zelenskiy, “two hours of happiness to which we are not accustomed.”
• The US announced yesterday it will send Ukraine four sophisticated, medium-range rocket systems and ammunition to help try to stall Russian progress in the Donbas region. The rocket systems are part of a new $700m tranche of security assistance that also includes helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, radars, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more. It will take at least three weeks to get the precision weapons and trained troops onto the battlefield, the Pentagon said.
• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the supply of US advanced rocket systems to Ukraine increases the risk of a “third country” being dragged into the conflict. Lavrov’s deputy, Sergei Ryabkov, said that Moscow viewed US military aid to Ukraine “extremely negatively” and that it would increase the risk of a direct confrontation. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added: “We believe that the United States is purposefully and diligently adding fuel to the fire.”
• The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said Ukraine has given “assurances” that it will not use long-range weapons systems provided by Washington against targets on Russian territory.

That is it from me, Martin Belam, for now. I will be back later. Léonie Chao-Fong will be here shortly.

Merkel condemns Russia’s ‘barbaric war of aggression’ in first speech since leaving office

Kate Connolly

In her first public speech since leaving office about six months ago, Angela Merkel has described Russia’s war on Ukraine as a “barbaric war of aggression” which amounted to a “far-reaching turning point”.

She said whilst she was reluctant to give her views from the sidelines as the former German chancellor, she could not avoid talking about the most “glaring breach of international law” in the history of Europe since the end of the second world war.

Speaking at a gathering of German trade unionists in Berlin on Wednesday night, Merkel said: “My solidarity goes out to Ukraine which has been attacked and raided by Russia”. She said there was no doubt as to Ukraine’s right to self defence.

Merkel did not respond to the widespread criticism both at home and abroad particularly since the start of the invasion over her own central role whilst in government towards establishing the now defunct Nord Stream II gas pipeline, of reinforcing Germany’s reliance on Russian energy or for failing to recognise the extent of the ambitions of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The chief spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that the number of foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine has halved since the the start of the war, due to Russian high-precision strikes and their own poor training. Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said:

Hundreds of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine were destroyed by Russian high-precision long-range weapons shortly after their arrival at the places where they underwent additional training and coordination of tactical units. But most of the mercenaries were destroyed in the combat zone due to the low level of training and lack of real combat experience.

The quotes are being carried by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, and were repeated in the ministry of defence’s daily briefing. Konashenkov has also claimed, without evidence, that the foreign mercenaries were being treated as canon fodder by Ukrainian forces, and that many have been killed without their families being informed, saying:

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the commanders of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, which included mercenaries, in an effort to reduce the loss of their military personnel, do not spare foreigners. Captured mercenaries tell during interrogations that they are sacrificed in the first place. Due to silence on loss by the Kyiv regime, and the absence of remains, the relatives of mercenaries in their countries of residence simply do not know about their death.

Konashenkov also had a warning for those still fighting as mercenaries in Ukraine, saying:

Faced with a real combat situation and heavy losses … a significant number of mercenaries prefer to leave the territory of Ukraine as soon as possible, but the Kyiv regime in every possible way prevents them from leaving abroad.️

Let me remind you that in accordance with international humanitarian law, mercenaries are not combatants and the best that awaits them is criminal liability.️

Emergency attempts by the Kyiv regime to guarantee legal protection to mercenaries, including [to enlist them] in military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the National Guard, or issuing them fresh passports of citizens of Ukraine, will not save any of them.