Ukraine and Russia poised to agree grain deal shortly, Turkish president says
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN are expected to sign the grain export deal at 1330 GMT in Istanbul on Friday.
“Shortly, signatures will be put down with the participation of Russia, Ukraine and the UN secretary general, overcoming problems on the grain issue, and we will give the world good news then,” Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at an event in Istanbul.
Key events
The US believes that Russia’s military is sustaining hundreds of casualties a day in its war in Ukraine, and has lost thousands of lieutenants and captains in total, a senior US defence official said on Friday.
The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the US also believed Ukraine had destroyed more than 100 “high-value” Russian targets inside Ukraine, including command posts, ammunition depots and air-defence sites.
The US estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached about 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA director William Burns said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine has also endured significant casualties.
The Kyiv Independent claimed on Friday that Russia had so far lost approximately 39,000 troops since it invaded Ukraine, citing “indicative estimates of Ukraine’s armed forces”.
These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of July 22, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Vnrggm9ak6
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 22, 2022
Russia treats military deaths as state secrets and has not updated its official casualty figures frequently during the war. On 25 March, it said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed.
Ukraine and Russia poised to agree grain deal shortly, Turkish president says
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN are expected to sign the grain export deal at 1330 GMT in Istanbul on Friday.
“Shortly, signatures will be put down with the participation of Russia, Ukraine and the UN secretary general, overcoming problems on the grain issue, and we will give the world good news then,” Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at an event in Istanbul.
Japan has warned of the potentially long-lasting impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific region in its annual defence white paper, released on Friday.
Japan is drawing parallels between the developments in Ukraine and China and its plans for self-ruled Taiwan, with prime minister Fumio Kishida warning repeatedly that “Ukraine today may be east Asia tomorrow”, the Japan Times reports.
The report calls Russia’s war on Ukraine a “serious violation of international law” and raises “concerns that the effects of such unilateral changes to the status quo by force may extend to the Indo-Pacific region”.
“If Russia’s aggression is tolerated, it may give the wrong impression that unilateral changes in the status quo are allowed in other regions, including Asia,” the white paper said.
“The international community, including Japan, must not tolerate such aggression.”
China, Russia and North Korea dominate Japan’s security concerns in the 500-page report, according to AP.
The foreign minister of Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region bordering Ukraine said on Friday that it is committed to achieving independence and possible unification with Russia, and that Moldova’s becoming a candidate for European Union membership effectively ends any possibility of cooperation.
Transnistria has hosted a contingent of Russian peacekeeping forces since 1992.
Analysts believe that Putin endeavours to take control of the territory of around 470,000 people.
In June, the EU granted Moldova candidate status, with full bloc membership conditional on reforms such as tackling corruption and strengthening rule of law.
Vitaly Ignatyev, the unrecognised government’s foreign minister, told a news conference in Moscow that Transnistria will pursue the goals determined in a 2006 referendum, the Associated Press reports.
He said:
The independent development of Transnistria and the subsequent free entry into the Russian Federation. […] The subsequent free accession to Russia is a process that probably requires significant decisions, political preparation and much more.
The main priority, obviously, is independence.
Having received the status of a candidate for EU membership, Moldova has thus crossed a certain Rubicon.
It put an end to the issue of building political relations within certain common spaces, because this decision was made solely by the Moldovan leadership, it was not taken collectively. Moreover, no one can speak for us.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Friday that Ukraine would not sign any documents with Russia as part of the expected grain export deal, but that Ukraine and Russia would instead sign parallel agreements on grain exports with the UN.
Podolyak added that any “provocations” by Russia over the deal will be met with a military response.
He said on Twitter:
1. Ukraine does not sign any documents with Russia. We sign an agreement with Turkey and the UN and undertake obligations to them. Russia signs a mirror agreement with Turkey and the UN.
2. No escorting of transport by Russian ships and the presence of Russian representatives in our ports. In case of provocations, an immediate military response.
3. All inspections of transport ships will be carried out by joint teams in Turkish waters should the need arise.
Italy will keep sending arms to Ukraine and back Kyiv in its war against Russia if the conservative bloc wins a forthcoming national election, the head of the most popular party in the alliance has said.
The far-right Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, has been one of the few Italian parties that has endorsed now ex-prime minister Mario Draghi’s decision to send weapons to Ukraine, even though it was in opposition to his government, Reuters reports.
By contrast, Meloni’s two main allies, the League and Forza Italia, which were both in Draghi’s coalition, have been much more ambivalent, reflecting their historically close ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
The Independent’s Bel Trew has compiled an informative thread explaining why today’s anticipated grain export deal is so important, but also why there is scepticism surrounding its effectiveness, and has interviewed farmers from different parts of Ukraine about the war’s impact on Ukrainian harvests and food exports 400 million people globally rely on.
Some excerpts below:
The war in Ukraine threatens to unleash an “unprecedented wave” of global hunger & destitution according to the UN. I travelled to Donbas, Kharkiv, Dnipro& Kyiv to meet farmers trying to harvest under shelling, missile fire & recent Russian occupation (?)https://t.co/7jxyEAGVqd
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) July 22, 2022
3. They all said even if they can harvest in this nightmare with mined fields, destroyed equipment & under fire, they can’t store their grains or sell them for export as Ukraine’s ports remain blocked. A deal may be signed today but Ukrainians are sceptical it will be implemented
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) July 22, 2022
6. Agriculture ministry told me nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s agricultural lands are unusable as they’re active frontlines,occupied or covered in mines, unexploded bombs. I spoke to one of Ukraine’s largest agrarian holdings: they’ve lost 70% of their fields,100s of staff missing
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) July 22, 2022
8. Ukraine agriculture ministry told me Ukraine may lose 3 harvests causing worldwide hunger, triggering conflict& migration. “We cannot sell last year’s harvest. This year’s harvest: forget selling it, we cannot even store it. Next harvest won’t happen with no incentive to sow”
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) July 22, 2022
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu will be in Istanbul on Friday to sign a UN-backed deal with Ukraine over grain exports, the Kremlin said.
In a call with reporters on Friday, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said:
Yes, we can confirm that defence minister Shoigu has gone to Turkey. We can confirm that an agreement is being prepared today.
The Russian rouble tumbled to 58 against the dollar on Friday, ahead of the central bank’s rate-setting meeting where it is expected to deliver the fourth cut so far this year.
The rouble has become the world’s best-performing currency so far this year, Reuters reports, boosted by measures such as restricting Russian households from withdrawing foreign currency savings.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the rouble traded at near 80 to the dollar and 85 to the euro.
Reuters reports:
The rouble’s strength has concerned officials as it dents Russia’s income from exports of commodities and other goods priced in dollars and euros.
To ease upside pressure on the currency, Russia relaxed some capital controls this week, allowing banks from designated “unfriendly countries” to trade between foreign currencies on the Russian forex markets.
The central bank, which supports the idea of a free-floating rouble, can further ease upside pressure on the currency in the long run by cutting rates later on Friday and thus trimming yields of rouble-denominated bonds.
“The Bank of Russia is likely to cut the key rate from the current level of 9.5%, which should have a positive effect on the stock and bond markets,” BCS Global Markets said in a note.
Ukrainian emergency workers have recovered three bodies from a school hit by a Russian strike in Kramatorsk, officials said on Friday.
Earlier reports from the Ukrainian side had said one body had been found, while Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that the strike had killed more than 300 Ukrainian troops that had been based at the school.
Ukraine’s state emergencies agency said it has completed work at the school, the Associated Press reports.
I’m Jedidajah Otte and taking over now for the next few hours.
Summary of the day so far …
- Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, will sign a deal later today to resume Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports, the Turkish president’s office has said. On Thursday night, the office of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said a general agreement was reached on a UN-led plan during talks in Istanbul last week and that it would be put in writing by the parties. The details of the agreement were not immediately known. It is due to be signed later today at the Dolmabahce Palace offices at 14.30 GMT, Erdoğan’s office said.
- The US said it would hold Russia accountable for implementing the deal. A state department spokesperson, Ned Price, accused Russia of weaponising food, saying: “What will really matter is the implementation of this agreement. We will, of course, continue to work with our partners to hold Russia accountable for its implementation.”
- Google is to be banned in the occupied Donetsk region of Ukraine for allegedly promoting “terrorism and violence against all Russians”. Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said “We have decided to block Google on the territory of the DPR. This is what they do in any society with criminals: they are isolated from other people. If Google stops pursuing its criminal policy and returns to the mainstream of law, morality and common sense, there will be no obstacles for its work.”
- The Russian ministry of defence has claimed, without providing any evidence, that it killed “up to 300 nationalists” in a strike on a school building in Kramatorsk yesterday. The ministry also said that in the period from 5-20 July it had destroyed four launchers and one transport-loading vehicle of the US-supplied Himars missile system. It also claims to have shot down 12 Ukrainian drones.
- Ukraine has the potential to inflict major losses on Russia and make gains on the battlefield, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has claimed. Speaking in a late-night video address after meeting with senior military commanders, he said the group discussed the supply of modern weapons, adding the intensity of attacks on the Russians had to be stepped up.
- The UK’s Ministry of Defence has said it believes that Russia is experiencing a “critical shortage” of ground-attack missiles, even as it advances on Kramatorsk and Siversk.
- The Russian government has expanded its list of “unfriendly states” which now includes 48 countries. The list now includes Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.
- Britain will send scores of artillery guns and more than 1,600 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said on Thursday. He said Britain would also provide counter-battery radar systems, hundreds of drones and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition.
- Ukraine has called for an international tribunal to bring Vladimir Putin to justice more quickly. Trying Russia separately for the act of aggression, with international participation, would speed up its quest to hold the Russian president and his inner circle accountable, officials said. “We hope to have the indictment within three months,” Andriy Smyrnov, Ukraine’s deputy head of the presidential administration, said.
- The Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, said the war must be stopped in order to avoid the “abyss of nuclear war” and insisted Ukraine accept Russia’s demands. “There’s no need to go further. Further lies the abyss of nuclear war,” he told AFP. Lukashenko also accused the west of seeking a conflict with Russia and of provoking the war. “If Russia had not got ahead of you, members of Nato, you would have organised and struck a blow against it,” he said.
That is it from me, Martin Belam, in London. I will be back later on. Jedidajah Otte will be here shortly to continue our live coverage.
Ukraine’s state emergency services has posted to Telegram to say that in the course of the war so far, nearly 165,000 munitions have been neutralised.
It said that yesterday pyrotechnic units were involved in 125 operations, and 784 explosive objects were identified and removed. It posted an image of one of the members of the demining teams donning protective gear.
Russia claims to have killed ‘up to 300’ service personnel in Kramatorsk school strike
The Russian ministry of defence has claimed that it killed “up to 300 nationalists” in a strike on a school building in Kramatorsk.
In its daily operation briefing, the ministry said, without providing any evidence:
As a result of a strike with ground-based precision weapons, the temporary deployment point of the Black Hundred nationalist formation deployed in the building of school No. 23 in the city of Kramatorsk was destroyed. Eliminated up to three hundred nationalists and over 40 units of special equipment.
The ministry also said that in the period from 5-20 July it had destroyed four launchers and one transport-loading vehicle of the US-supplied Himars missile system. It also claims to have shot down 12 Ukrainian drones.
None of the claims from the Russian ministry of defence have been independently verified.
Images from the scene of yesterday’s strike on the school in Kramatorsk showed bystanders looking at the wreckage as it was cleared.
Google to be banned in occupied Donetsk by pro-Russian regime
Google is to be banned in the occupied Donetsk region of Ukraine for allegedly promoting “terrorism and violence against all Russians”.
Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), posted to Telegram to say:
The inhuman propaganda of Ukraine and the west has long crossed all boundaries. There is a real persecution of Russians, the imposition of lies and disinformation.
At the forefront of information technology in this regard is the Google search engine, which openly, on the orders of its curators from the US government, promotes terrorism and violence against all Russians, and especially the population of Donbas.
It didn’t start yesterday. I think that this situation should no longer be put up with. We have decided to block Google on the territory of the DPR. This is what they do in any society with criminals: they are isolated from other people.
If Google stops pursuing its criminal policy and returns to the mainstream of law, morality and common sense, there will be no obstacles for its work.
Russia, Syria and North Korea are the only UN member states to recognise the DPR as a legitimate authority.
The Russian government has issued a statement this morning saying it has expanded its list of “unfriendly states”. Posting an order dated 20 July, the statement says:
The government has updated the list of foreign states that commit unfriendly actions against Russian diplomatic and consular missions abroad. The list includes Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.
The list approved by the government, in addition to the names of countries, indicates the number of individuals located on the territory of Russia with whom diplomatic missions of unfriendly countries and their consular offices can enter into employment contracts. So, according to the new order, Greece has a limit of 34 people, Denmark 20, Slovakia 16. Slovenia and Croatia will not be able to hire employees in their diplomatic missions and consular offices.
The list approved by the government is not final and, taking into account the ongoing hostile actions of foreign states directed against Russian missions abroad, may be expanded.
The list has 48 countries on it in total, including Australia, Canada, Great Britain, New Zealand, all EU member states and the US.
Tensions have increased in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova in recent days, as yesterday marked the thirtieth anniversary of the signing of a peace accord that helped bring about the current status quo, where Transnistria is its own de facto unrecognised state, with a Russia garrison stationed there.
Earlier this week, there was a dispute between Chișinău and Moscow, after the Moldovans stopped Russian military officials at the border.
Today, Russia RIA Novosti is carrying an interview with the breakaway region’s foreign minister, Vitaly Ignatiev, in which he says Transnistria intends to join the Russian Federation. It quotes him saying:
The vector of Transnistria has remained unchanged throughout the years of the republic’s existence, which is reflected in the results of the referendum on 17 September 2006, where it is clearly indicated: independence with subsequent free accession to the Russian Federation. The independence of the country is an absolute priority.
Were Transnistria to accede to Russia, that would place a Russian exclave on Ukraine’s western border, next to the Odesa oblast. Earlier in the current conflict, Transnistria claimed it was being fired upon from Ukrainian territory, and explosions damaged radio transmitters inside Transnistria.
Steve Gutterman has written interesting piece for Radio Free Europe today, in which he sets out the territorial ambitions that Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov expressed this week. Gutterman writes:
Putin and his government appeared to be eager for control over a broad swath of eastern and southern Ukraine that officials, state media, and pro-Kremlin pundits increasingly referred to as Novorossia.
That’s certainly how Lavrov made it sound on 20 July, when he told state media outlets that the geographical objectives of Russia’s war in Ukraine now go beyond the Donbas, encompassing the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions to the southwest “and a number of other territories”.
While Lavrov was by far the highest official to make such a statement, he was stating the obvious. Russia already controls parts of those two additional regions, including Kherson’s eponymous capital, giving it a coveted “land bridge” from the Russian border to Crimea.
Moreover, there have been plenty of signals that Moscow wants to control all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including Odesa, up to the border with Moldova – and specifically its breakaway Transnistria region.
Of course, it would be foolish to assume that Lavrov’s description of what the Kremlin now wants is honest. After all, this is the same Lavrov who stated repeatedly last winter that Russia would not invade Ukraine – and then, once it had invaded, said repeatedly that it had not. But it seems likely to mean that Putin believes this is something he can get.
Read more here: Radio Free Europe – The Week In Russia: ‘Divorced From Reality’
