At Financial institution of the West in San Francisco, Scott Anderson, the chief economist, is watching the jobless claims information for clues in regards to the path of California’s economic system.
New claims for state unemployment advantages fell by extra 40,000 final week, not accounting for seasonal changes, however Mr. Anderson stated, “I’d watch out about studying an excessive amount of into that decline.” The variety of Californians gathering unemployment has been rising, he famous, “and I feel we might undoubtedly see a rise within the weeks forward, given the closures throughout the state.”
California is just not solely the nation’s most populous state, Mr. Anderson famous, but additionally accounts for about 14 % of the nation’s financial output.
Like many states, it has been pulled in reverse instructions. A resurgence in coronavirus instances pressured many companies that had reopened to shut for a second time in early July. Bars, gyms, indoor eating and household leisure facilities have been affected in lots of components of California, a transfer that got here as a shock to proprietors who had excessive hopes once they reopened their institutions.
“There’s quite a lot of angst amongst small-business house owners as a result of they spent some huge cash making an attempt to reopen after which they needed to shut once more,” Mr. Anderson stated. “There’s a query of whether or not these companies are going to reopen in any respect.”
Even a second spherical of federal loans beneath the Paycheck Safety Program, as is being mentioned in Washington, could also be too little, too late, Mr. Anderson stated. “I feel there are undoubtedly some darkish clouds on the horizon,” he stated.